Labour landslide

The election already seems an age away after the lead up to the day seemed like we had entered slow motion.

Thursday was a real slog. A beautifully sunny day, we voted in Colchester and also in picturesque Dedham for Charlotte's friend Catherine who lives in Spain.

Then we waited. Charlotte went out to see The Bluetones leaving me home alone. Well, the kids were here but showed little interest in potentially witnessing history.

I was so nervous before the exit poll fearing a late Tory surge. However, the prediction was for a Labour landslide. This was tempered by one of the night's other stunning events - Reform predicted to get 13 MPs.

There has inevitably been a ton written about the result, but I'd like to add a few personal observations.

Firstly, I'm happy, which bears recording now as the naysaying has already started. Britain does need change and the Tories were never going to deliver it.

My expectations are set fairly low. Starmer is bang on in managing expectations. There is a lot to be done but surely Change Labour or whatever they'll be called can deliver more than their predecessors. Contrary to the slagging in the campaign, I think they do have a plan but don't expect fireworks.

As such, it's a victory for the centrist dads, and I'm okay with that. No more drama for a while.

Colchester has it's first female MP and the first Labour one in an age. I never thought I'd see that so soon. Pam Cox smashed former Olympics oarsman James Cracknell an' all.

Reform's performance is worrying. I don't see what they offer anyone beyond a protest vote. Farage doesn't give a damn for Clacton or any of the blighted spots they're spewing their hate. They're not going away though. Best argument against PR evah!

In ordinary times Labour would be settling in for at least 10.years given how the Tories have imploded. But these aren't normal times. Labour itself is back from the brink of 2019 to lay waste to Sunak, helped by Reform. They really have to deliver for a cynical and unforgiving population, and they face a bucket load of challenges. This will be the shortest political honeymoon ever. I wish them well - they'll need it.

Election day tomorrow

I can't remember a general election where the result has seemed so preordained. 

Actually, that's wrong. Lots of Tory wins have seemed inevitable. It's the opposition wins that always seem unlikely.

This time however it looks like Labour will be the next government. Unless the polling and pundit industry have got things seriously wrong, the only question seems to be how big the majority will be.

Such certainty makes many people (me) cringe. I well remember 1992 when many people (not me) thought it was in the bag. It was one of many electoral disappointments in the past couple of decades.

Is 2024 different? It seems so. Labour started with a 20%+ lead in polls but surely this would close as the long campaign ran. Well, it hasn't.

The Tories have had a string of gaffes - Dunkirk, Gambling-gate, dodgy tax claims - but that 20% hasn't budged. The re-emergence of Farage with his Reform Ltd vehicle has also hurt them. It looks like he will be a local MP to us - Clacton is just half an hour from here.

Colchester itself is in play for Labour, and a string of nearby Tories could lose their seats - something that would have been inconceivable after the Labour collapse at the last GE.

Keir Starmer really has done quite a job although few seem to give him much credit. They call him dull, lacking in ideas, stiff, and uninspiring. That seems harsh to me. After what we've had with Truss and Johnson, competence, which he has in buckets, will seem almost revolutionary.

A massive Labour 'supermajority' (no such thing in our GE, I know) will not mean anything to me. A good working majority will be plenty. Anything more though will demonstrate how fully the country has turned against the Tories. To use a phrase beloved of Boris Johnson, a punishment beating could be on its way. 

Is it deserved? That's for voters to decide.

It will be massive weight off many shoulders if Starmer walks into 10 Downing St on Friday. But expectations should be tempered. Blair faced a similar situation in 1997 but the winds were more in his favour economically. Britain expects the Change that Labour says it can deliver but Starmer and Reeves have been caution exemplified. It will take time to sort out a lot of the mess the Tories have left. A few early quick wins would be clever and I don't doubt they'll learn from New Labour that feel good policies in the early days will create a sense of movement.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves. No votes have been counted yet and the time between now and the much anticipated exit poll tomorrow night will seem like an age. And the time before the count confirms it will seem even longer.

But we've waited 14 years. We can wait a little longer.