Election day tomorrow

I can't remember a general election where the result has seemed so preordained. 

Actually, that's wrong. Lots of Tory wins have seemed inevitable. It's the opposition wins that always seem unlikely.

This time however it looks like Labour will be the next government. Unless the polling and pundit industry have got things seriously wrong, the only question seems to be how big the majority will be.

Such certainty makes many people (me) cringe. I well remember 1992 when many people (not me) thought it was in the bag. It was one of many electoral disappointments in the past couple of decades.

Is 2024 different? It seems so. Labour started with a 20%+ lead in polls but surely this would close as the long campaign ran. Well, it hasn't.

The Tories have had a string of gaffes - Dunkirk, Gambling-gate, dodgy tax claims - but that 20% hasn't budged. The re-emergence of Farage with his Reform Ltd vehicle has also hurt them. It looks like he will be a local MP to us - Clacton is just half an hour from here.

Colchester itself is in play for Labour, and a string of nearby Tories could lose their seats - something that would have been inconceivable after the Labour collapse at the last GE.

Keir Starmer really has done quite a job although few seem to give him much credit. They call him dull, lacking in ideas, stiff, and uninspiring. That seems harsh to me. After what we've had with Truss and Johnson, competence, which he has in buckets, will seem almost revolutionary.

A massive Labour 'supermajority' (no such thing in our GE, I know) will not mean anything to me. A good working majority will be plenty. Anything more though will demonstrate how fully the country has turned against the Tories. To use a phrase beloved of Boris Johnson, a punishment beating could be on its way. 

Is it deserved? That's for voters to decide.

It will be massive weight off many shoulders if Starmer walks into 10 Downing St on Friday. But expectations should be tempered. Blair faced a similar situation in 1997 but the winds were more in his favour economically. Britain expects the Change that Labour says it can deliver but Starmer and Reeves have been caution exemplified. It will take time to sort out a lot of the mess the Tories have left. A few early quick wins would be clever and I don't doubt they'll learn from New Labour that feel good policies in the early days will create a sense of movement.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves. No votes have been counted yet and the time between now and the much anticipated exit poll tomorrow night will seem like an age. And the time before the count confirms it will seem even longer.

But we've waited 14 years. We can wait a little longer.